When will Bitcoin die (when will Bitcoin rise and when will Bitcoin fall)?

When will Bitcoin die? Editor’s note: This article is from Caiyun Blockchain (ID: cybtc_com), authorized by Odaily Xingqiu Daily to reprint.

When will Bitcoin die?

On December 18, 2018, Zhao Changpeng, CEO of Bitfinex, one of the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchanges, tweeted, “Hello, I am Bitfinex CEO.” He later added, “If it weren’t for me, it wouldn’t exist.”According to previous reports, in late 2019, Arthur Hayes, co-founder and CEO of BitMEX, posted on Weibo saying, “I think Bitcoin is already dead.” Later, Zhao Changpeng responded to this statement with a video on their official website. Regarding this, Zhao Changpeng said, “We should go back to the first quarter of 2012 and see the development of this story and the possible events that may happen next. “Many people are saying that 2020 will be crazy… but in fact, that is not accurate!” He also explained, “What I guessed is that the bull market of 2017 and the bear market of early 2018 are completely different periods. So, I have been predicting this since 2015, but later after a period of adjustment, I estimated that Bitcoin would completely disappear before the end of 2019.”When a new coin is launched, people often have different opinions on its price trend, such as Bitcoin’s price falling below $30,000 or Ethereum surging 20%, and as a result, the market mourns. Some try to attract investors through various means, while others try to buy these so-called “shitcoins” at high prices. However, as it turns out, this irrational behavior does not occur. Therefore, in some cases, extreme price fluctuations may occur. Of course, some novices often do the same. But the question is, why do so many people pay attention to it?

1. Regarding mining rewards, since August of this year, the total network power has been 54.5 Ehash/s. Since then, the daily output of blocks has exceeded 200,000. The average block speed is only 2 minutes, and it will decrease by 1 billion coins every 4 days. Currently, there are only about 36,000 new blocks added daily. In addition, with the continuous increase in network difficulty, Bitcoin will destroy nearly $100 million in total. Calculated based on the current total supply of about 21 million coins, there will be about 3 million people joining in every year. (source link)2. Regarding mining fees, since August of this year, the overall network transaction fees have been continuously rising. By the end of September, it reached a historical high, and by the end of November, it nearly doubled, reaching a 13-month high. In late July, it even reached a peak value of $165 million. In comparison, this year’s income is only $20 million. “You should know that if you want to speculate, you first need a wallet address to register your account because you must have the user’s real identity information to log in to your computer,” this is the most frustrating sentence.

When will Bitcoin rise and when will Bitcoin fall

Bitcoin’s price has been rising since the beginning of this year and started to fall after reaching a high of $39,000 on June 18. However, historically, this situation will not change.

So, when will Bitcoin rise? Why is it called a bull market now? Or is a “bear market” referring to a period when the market experiences significant volatility? Or is it like the ICO bubble in 2017, where various shitcoins had a large increase in value?

Therefore, let’s first take a look at the price trend of Bitcoin in the past two years. From the chart above, it can be seen that Bitcoin has already declined by about 70% from mid-December 2019 to April 2020. After that, BTC dropped by another 60% after the end of October 2020, indicating the emergence of more shitcoins and new funds entering the market. By the end of January 2021, Bitcoin ushered in a new upward trend. In other words, before the end of 2019, Bitcoin is highly likely to have a small rebound to some extent. However, currently, there is still a long way to go before breaking through $30,000, so let’s speculate on what Bitcoin really is.

First, we need to understand a concept called “Ding Tou” (accumulation). If this concept is hyped, a large number of people will participate, such as many investors who are currently paying attention to this round of price increases. Another cryptocurrency is Ethereum, whose founder Vitalik Buterin believes that Ethereum is a highly decentralized application. He said Ethereum 2.0 may be on the way soon. Secondly, the explosion of applications such as DeFi and NFT is also a very big driving force. In the past year and a half, DeFi has been developing vigorously, and with the rise of DeFi and more institutions entering the market, these projects will become the next big opportunities in the blockchain industry. Of course, many people believe that Ethereum 2.0 is coming. At the same time, it has sparked many discussions about DeFi projects, and even raised a question: “Should Ethereum be completely migrated to the PoS consensus mechanism?” So how does Ethereum perform as a cryptographic asset? According to Coinmarketcap data, as of the week ending May 19, the market cap was 211.881 billion USD. In comparison, in early January this year, Bitcoin prices reached a peak of nearly $20,000, then experienced a continuous decline until recently when it stabilized.